Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine April 2017 - 12

Airplane Flight Safety Using Error-Tolerant Data Stream Processing

Figure 10.
Figure 9.

Estimated airspeed and detected modes for AF447 flight. Once an error
is detected, the airspeed is recalculated (green line) by the appropriate correction formula, i.e., S1 line in correct section of SpeedCheck
PILOTS program (Figure 8).

Tuninter Flight 1153 flight path. (Tuninter crash.png by DOWIMA,
adapted from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tuninter_crash.
png.)

TUNINTER FLIGHT 1153: WRONG FUEL QUANTITY
INDICATOR
Tuninter Flight 1153 (TU1153) was a flight from Bari, Italy
to Djerba, Tunisia on August 6th, 2005 (flight path shown in
Figure 10). About an hour after the departure, the ATR 72 aircraft
Figure 11.
Altitude transition of the TU1153 flight.
ditched into the Mediterranean Sea due to the exhaustion of its
fuel, killing 16 of 39 people on board (see Figure 11 for altitude
transition obtained from the accident report [30]). The accident
ing to the accident report, that is a reasonable approximation at
was caused by the installation of an incorrect fuel quantity indicathe time of the accident. To obtain a relationship that holds among
tor. That is, a quantity indicator for the smaller ATR 42 model was
these variables, a polynomial regression was applied to the operatmistakenly installed, reporting 2,150 kg more fuel than actually
ing manual tables to derive an equation to estimate the airspeed.
available.
Then, to get an improved functional fit to the actual data, a calibraHow could this accident be prevented? If all other conditions
tion term (= - 2.59), computed from the first cruise phase from the
are the same between two flights except for the weight, the one with
actual TU1153 flight, was added to the regression equation. As the
lighter weight would have a higher airspeed. If a system could comresult, the regression estimate airspeed vˆa model is:
pute expected airspeed from the monitored weight, the expected and
T
monitored airspeed could be compared to detect if there is a discrep 1   6.4869 E  01 

 

ancy between the two. Once the system detects the discrepancy, it can
 w   1.4316 E  02 
warn pilots in an early stage of the flight to prevent accidents. Using
 h   6.6730 E  03 
(8)
vˆa 
 .
  2.59.
this idea, we design a vector of error signatures and 
evaluate it with
 w  h   3.7716 E  07 
real data recorded during the TU1153 flight.
 w2   2.4208E  07 
 2  

 h   1.1730 E  07 
Error Signatures Vector
In the ATR 72 fight crew operating manual [31], there are tables
for pilots to estimate cruise airspeed (knots) under certain conditions of engine power settings, temperature difference to the International Standard Atmosphere (Celsius), flight level (feet), and
weight (kg) of the aircraft; which are denoted by va, tΔ, h, and w,
respectively. To interpret the tables, we fix tΔ = +10, since accord12

Likewise, an error function is defined as follows:
e  va , w, h
 va  vˆa

(9)

Since the error function is close to zero on average after the calibration, naturally the error value of zero with small margins iden-

IEEE A&E SYSTEMS MAGAZINE

APRIL 2017


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/file:tuninter_crash.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/file:tuninter_crash.png

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