Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine April 2017 - 58
Given the care with which the other parts of the search were
analyzed, it is quite surprising that the important topic of updating
the crash location distribution for the results of unsuccessful search
occupies only one page in this book. The discussion of this topic
concludes with, "Based on the quality assurance process which has
been implemented in the MH370 search, which includes revisiting
items that have been assessed as potential debris, it is considered
highly unlikely that the search would fail to detect the aircraft if
the correct location is searched." The reader should compare this
with the detailed discussion and documentation of the unsuccessful
side-looking sonar search contained in the report  which was incorporated into the posterior distribution for the location of AF447
developed after two years of unsuccessful search. For that analysis
the sonar records of the search, particularly the search taking place
in the second year, were carefully reviewed to determine that they
were of high quality out to the range employed and that numerous
artifacts had been detected with very high resolution. In addition
the track spacing ensured that almost every part of the searched
area was covered twice by the side-looking sonar search. A detection probability of 0.9 was assigned to this search effort. Given the
quality of the sonar records and the almost double coverage of the
searched area, this was a very conservative estimate. In the case of
the MH370 search, one is led to suppose that the authors were not
given full access to the search results and were not able to perform
a careful analysis of the unsuccessful search as was done in the
The analysis of the unsuccessful search notwithstanding, I
highly recommend this book to anyone who performs or intends
to perform Bayesian search analysis. Another virtue of this book
is that anyone with a "theory" as to what happened to MH370 will
have to square their theory with the detailed evidence, particularly
the satellite measurements, presented and analyzed in this book. If
the theory does not fit this evidence, it has to be met with considerable skepticism.
IEEE A&E SYSTEMS MAGAZINE
Ashton, C., Bruce, A. S., Colledge, C., and Dickinson, M. The Search
for MH370. The Journal of Navigation, the Royal Institute of Navigation, 2014.
Daum, F., and Haung, J. Particle degeneracy: Root cause and solution.
Proceedings of SPIE, Vol. 8050 (2011).
Wall Street Journal, Aug. 4, 2015.
"MH370-First Principles Review" ATSB Transport Safety Report,
Aviation External Investigation AE-2014-054, 20 December 2016.
Stone, L. D., Keller, C. M., Kratzke, T. M., and Strumpfer, J. P. Search
for the wreckage of Air France, AF447. Statistical Science, Vol. 29
Gurley, J. V., and Stone, L. D. What does the recovery of floating
debris tell us about the location of a wreck. Metron Memorandum,
Aug. 24, 2015.
Stone, L. D., Keller, C. M., Kratzke, T. M., and Strumpfer, J. Search
analysis for the location of the AF447 underwater wreckage. Metron
report to Bureau d'Enquêtes et d'Analyses, Jan. 20, 2011.
Associated Press, December 20, 2014 "MH370 officials: crash site
could be north of search area."