Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine January 2018 - 10

Systems Engineering Approach Using Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD)
Table 2.

Prioritization Matrix with Weighting Values for the Detection and Tracking Group
Weights
Importance

Ground
Coverage

Space
Telescopes

In-Situ
Characteristics

Orbiting
Spacecraft
Characteristics

Time to implement

2

4

3

1

2

Cost

2

2

3

5

4

Feasibility

3

5

5

3

4

Detection 90% < 140 m

3

1

3

N/A

N/A

Detection 90% 140 m - 1 km

3

2

4

N/A

N/A

Detection 99% > 1 km

3

3

5

N/A

N/A

Trajectory

3

3

4

1

5

Composition

2

2

3

5

4

58

81

34

47

-

does not threaten any nation and sharing it contributes to a collaborative environment. The detection phase is a great time to establish international collaboration. Secondly, the deflection phase is critical because states will have to decide who will lead the planetary defense;
who, or which body, will act as decision makers. Thirdly, if deflection
is not successful and the impact is inevitable, the world must prepare
for the recovery phase. A certain role in planetary defense will challenge how to establish a viable global collaboration structure.

Establishing Value
Continuing with the IPPD process, after defining the problem, it is
necessary to determine the value of the concepts discussed during
the definition of the problem so that the requirements can be met.
That was done using a table that compares alternatives numerically
against a baseline that provided a level of importance, or weights.
These weighting values were taken from the prioritization matrix,
which may be subjective, but allowed us to give a weight of importance to different alternatives based on the subject matter presented
to us by experts in the field who visited us during the project. The
Detection and Tracking subteam split their detection solutions into
three sections depending on NEO's size with a target detection ratio of 90% or more. They considered two different possibilities for
characterization of the size and the composition of the object; Table
2 shows the prioritization matrix, where the rows list specific characteristics of the telescope. Each possibility was ranked, from 1 to
5, where higher the number, the more valuable the solution was. By
adding the numbers assigned to each cell multiplied by the weights
for each row, it was determined that this subsystem focus would be
on improvements on both space-based and ground-based telescopes.

Generating Feasible Alternatives
The next step of the IPPD process is to generate possible alternative concepts that will meet the need. That was achieved with
the use of a morphological matrix. The morphological matrix is a
method of breaking down a system into its essential components
10

and spurring the creativity of the designers by helping them to
think of possible concepts logically. A critical element in the planning of a NEO impact mitigation strategy is the establishment of
contingency plans if an impact cannot be avoided. The objective
of the Evacuation and Recovery subteam was to address strategies
to limit any damage caused by a NEO impact with Earth. A successful response to a NEO impact starts with early detection and
impact simulations. In the past few years, we have seen an increase
in the detection of NEOs and by having more accurate data and
a better understanding of these impacts, evacuation and recovery
strategies can be designed and simulated in advance of an actual
threat [17], [18], [21], [23], [24]. Table 3 shows the Evacuation and
Recovery subteam's morphological matrix, where major elements
in building an effective plan are presented, along with methods for
damage assessment before and after a NEO impact.

Evaluating Alternatives
To determine which of the alternatives would be most effective
at fulfilling all of the stakeholders' requirements, each group conducted an evaluation of alternatives. This was done qualitatively
using the morphological matrices generated in the previous step,
but this time selecting optimal solutions. Table 4 shows a morphological matrix with optimal solutions for detection systems. In
this case, the optimal situation is a combination of ground-based
optical observations complemented by space-based infrared measurements.

Making Decisions
The final step of the IPPD method is to make a decision. We used
a risk assessment matrix, as shown in Table 5, to evaluate the risk
likelihood if the recommended solution is not implemented versus
time of impact within the next 20 years. The event that has the highest risk would be the one that takes a long time to develop and where
there is a high probability that these events would occur. Our analysis
is focused on a comet threat within the next 1-2 years and how we

IEEE A&E SYSTEMS MAGAZINE

JANUARY 2018



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