AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - 53

NEWS
AIRCRAFT VALUATION AND LEASE RATE DATA
Aircraft Value News is the leading source of aircraft value data and leasing rates, used to make purchasing
decisions by corporate aircraft owners and operators, and financial analysts worldwide. This online resource,
written by appraiser Paul Leighton, provides details behind current value trends and anticipated movements in
residual values of all commercial jet aircraft. You get the latest in market values and lease rates, and insights into
the values of emerging types.
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43016
Trends and Market Analysis of Aircraft Values
April 24, 2023
Vol. XXXII, No. 9
IN THIS ISSUE
New Aircraft Programs Yet to
Take Center Stage Again _____ 2
B787-3 May Yet Be Revived
Alongside Re-Engining _______ 2
B737-900ER Values Struggle to
Achieve Parity with B737-800 _ 3
B767-300ER Values Remain Weak
Despite Freight Market _______ 4
Lessors Risks Ease As More
Turboprops Return to Service _ 4
Business Jet Values Stabilize
After Substantial Rise ________ 7
Aircraft Type Review -
B767-300 Values Collapse in
Last Ten Years ______________ 9
Whatever Happened to B757-300
Values _____________________ 10
NEWS
Net Pricing of New B787-8's Yet to
Recover to Pre-Covid Levels
Used Values Exhibit Modest Improvement
After Suffering 30%+ Fall
Both new and used values of the B787-8 remain lack luster despite the
rapidly evolving international traffic
Even though the B787-8 was the first iteration of the B787 (nee Sonic
Cruiser then B7E7), the type suffered as soon as the -9 eventually became
available - as was anticipated. The B787 took many more years to enter service
than originally planned not least because of the complexity in building an
all-new aircraft but also in seeking to use new materials, 330-minute ETOP's,
manufacturing techniques and a global supply chain. The design of the B787
originally revolved around four variants - the -3, -8, -9 and -10. The difficulties
in creating the B787 meant that the -3 was cancelled, the -9 was delayed with
the -10 also being much delayed and featuring a lesser range than originally
envisioned. The B787-8 therefore essentially became the test variant. While the
B787-8 was seen as a replacement for the then ubiquitous B767-300ER, which
had secured nearly 600 orders, the issue for the -8 lay with a market structure
that was moving forward, not least because of the delay to the program.
Whereas the B787-8 may have been the ideal type to replace the B767 in the
2000's, it was not the variant that would be in such demand in the 2010's.
While in the 2000's, more A330-200s were being delivered than A330-300's,
this was reversed in the 2010's with 2014 seeing 75 deliveries of the -300 but
only 28 -200's.
Service entry of the B787-8 was originally planned for 2008 but this
did not take place until late 2011 - more than three years later but still
considerably better than the B777-9. In 2005, the B787-8 had a list price of
between $125-135 million which was considered to be low, particularly as net
pricing was likely to be below $100 million. In 2005, the list price of the A350800
ranged between $158.6 and $165.3 million. At only $100 million, this was only $15 million more than the peak
B767-300ER value of $85 million of the year 2000. The B787-8 was therefore considered to be relatively inexpensive
for a type that offered at least a twenty percent improvement in efficiency over the B767.
The demand for the B787-8 was initially high when the type was launched in 2004 not least because the market
was seeking a replacement for the ageing B767-300ER, a type that was designed in the 1970s. The market was also
emerging from a downturn and traffic was booming. However, jet fuel prices had increased from a $1 a gallon in 2003
to more than $2 a gallon as of 2007 with $4 being reached in mid-2008. Operators were therefore anxious to place
orders for the replacement B787-8. With the delay to the program overall and development of the -9, operators had
no choice but to opt for the B787-8 even though as of 2010 it was apparent that the -9 was to be the more favored
when available due to far better operating economics due to its larger size.
The value of a new B787-8 as of 2011 had risen to nearly $110 million although it was apparent that launch
customers were securing much lower levels which is the norm for new aircraft types such are the risk and need for
manufacturers to secure a sizeable backlog before deliveries commence. As the international market developed in
the 2010's, the value of a new B787-8 increased to nearly $120 million although in the years just before the pandemic
these stagnated at just below $120 million. Boeing had attempted to revitalize the B787-8 program by improving the
commonality with the B787-9 and as a means of offsetting the demand for the much lower priced A330neo. There
was considerable speculation that new net pricing of the B787-8 had fallen to well below $100 million with lease
rentals of less than $700,000 per month which were much lower than the $1 million per month lease rentals that were
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AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024

AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - Intro
AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - Cover1
AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - Cover2
AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - 1
AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - 2
AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - 3
AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - 4
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AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - Cover3
AEA Pilot's Guide 2023-2024 - Cover4
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